Understandably many Democrats feel that after their excited and record-turnout primary season that it will be a Democrat that takes the White House.  I’m not denying that it is a very real possibility, however I feel that this election is going to be a nail-biter for both sides. 

Regardless of whether the Democratic nominee is Obama or Clinton both face serious problems in the general election.  Many people don’t like Hillary and aren’t going to change.  While Obama managed to pull off a win here in here in 95% white Iowa, he is almost certainily going to have to face the race issue.  And unless Obama manages a big win tomorrow in Texas and Ohio, Hillary will almost certainily stay in, which is a minus for Obama (see this article).  Either way, a divided party does not help either candidate in the long run of the general election.

People might talk about the “real divide” which in their minds is in the Republican Party.  Yes, many Republicans might not have voted for John McCain as their first or even second choice.  However, at the end of the day - McCain should be able to run an effective campaign by pointing out that even though they might disagree on a few issues, Barack or Hillary would be worse. 

Plus McCain has independent appeal.  He for sure has more than Hillary but he might even have more than Barack, who actually lost the New Hampshire primary because many independents went for McCain.  If New Hampshire is any sort of a preview for the national independent vote, John McCain definetly gets the advantage.

And if it really comes down to it, Obama’s change and Hillary’s experience are moot arguments against John McCain.  He has more experience in government than either one combined and has nearly a thirty year record of working across the aisle to get things done.

In the end, none of this may mean anything.  I’m not so ignorant to think that any of these things are sure-fire ways to win, however it is my belief that John McCain can put up a real fight against either Democratic candidate - and he could beat either one.  It’s along ways until November and we’ll just have to see who will win.�

I’m not going to lie, most Republicans would rather face Hillary Clinton in November. She’s smart, but ultimately too many Americans just don’t like her.  Many Democrats realize this (or don’t like her themselves), so I guess it really makes sense that so many Democrats are going to Obama, who many people actually do like.

Many Republicans might feel uneasy about having to face an ultimately stronger candidate in the general election, but I think it could do wonders for the Republican party. In order to win against the new Democratic machine, we will need to be innovative and think outside the box. We will need to reach out to groups of people that may not normally vote Republican. We will need a whole new strategy to win a whole new kind of election. It is just what the party needs.

A couple of months ago, I outlined some of the party’s bad strategy in Poor “Strategery”. At the time, I was not very confident anything was going to be done before the 2008 election and my general feelings were that a Republican might win, but the long term trend was not in our favor. But several things have happened since December 19th, indicating to me that these bad trends just might be turning around.

Republicans chose the most visible moderate, John McCain to be the nominee. Granted, he doesn’t have it yet, but it’s mathematically impossible for anybody else to get it at this point. Democrats began choosing Obama over Clinton, which removes the enabler (Hillary) from allowing us to win without changing some core ways in which the party behaves.

Like I said in that December 19th post, the Republican party is going to have to change in order to keep up with the Democrats. We need to be more inclusive towards people who haven’t traditionally been Republicans. If we don’t reach out and show Americans what the party can do, we will shrink as America moves forward into this century. We can’t just allow ourselves to become a group of White and Christian people - we need diversity to continue.

A species needs genetic diversity to continue to be strong, healthy and adaptive; likewise we need diversity to continue to be relevant, competitive and innovative. We need people of all colors, faiths, and people of different political ideas within the “right wing” of the political spectrum (in other words Moderates, Conservatives and even Libertarians). And we need a new understanding within the party so that we can all work together - otherwise we are just working against each other.

Hillary enables us to continue along our present path: we’ll win in November, but from then on we are in a vary problematic situation. However Barack Obama forces us to change in order to beat him. In the end, we may not beat him in November, but we will have changed for the better because of it.